If you are a recruiter, the best way to make sense of the national unemployment rate, which currently sits at 5.3%, is to ignore it. Well, not really. But the real meat of the unemployment story lies in regional data. Broken down by states, Tasmania and NSW lead the nation in unemployment numbers, while employers in states like NT and ACT are likely to struggle with recruiting the right staff (Refer chart. Source: ABS).

Factor in the health of regional economies and one can have a fairly good idea of how difficult finding new staff will be. Commonwealth Bank measured the economic prowess of the states using eight different criteria and ranked them as follows:  

1. WA
2. ACT
3. South Australia
4. Northern Territory
5. Victoria
6. Tasmania
7. Queensland
8. NSW

Unsurprisingly, where a state lagged in economic development the unemployment rate tends to be high. The best performing economies like WA and the ACT have unemployment rates much below the national average. 

If you are a recruiter, arguably there will be more demand per capita for your skills in states like WA and the ACT (From an agency perspective having a presence in growing states would make sense – demand is likely to be consistent and competition lesser.) Dig deeper and one can unearth other data like job vacancies, supply of workforce (broken down by industry), labour productivity and turnover rates. A discerning recruiter can interpret the above sets of data and have a clearer picture on how and where to distribute limited resources.

Recruiting is mostly local, so regional data is what matters. Having a good grasp of local data should be an essential task when planning a sourcing strategy; by all means it should precedes any tactical activity (and yes that includes social media).

Let’s have a look at the major indices monitoring the health of the job market.

The ANZ Job Index
According to the ANZ Job series, total job advertisement grew by 1.3% in July, to be 36.1% higher than they were last July. The economy added 171,685 jobs on average per week. Surprisingly, print ads did very well increasing by 1.2% while internet job ads grew only 1.3%.

The Advantage Job Index
The advantage job index painted a slightly different picture – job ads dropped by 1.3%. It should be noted here that ANZ internet series includes data from Seek; Hudson Global Resources; and jobsearch.gov.au. While the Advantage Job Index monitors data from Seek, Mycareer and CareerOne.  

The Internet Vacancy Index:  
The DEEWR Internet Vacancy Index (IVI) is a count of online vacancies on SEEK, My Career, Career One and Australian JobSearch. The index, a three month moving average, increased by 0.9% in June 2010 to 80.3 (the next release date is 18 August).

Two other indices – SEEK employment Index and ABS Job vacancies (Cat 6354.0) – will shed further light on job vacancies when they are released later this month. However, with unemployment rate currently sitting at 5.1% it’s clear that the health of the job market is in a much better shape than it was a year ago.

A range of indices paint a somewhat positive picture of the year ahead.

Unemployment rate & Economy
The big news is unemployment rate dropped to 5.5% and the IMF forecasts the economy to register a growth rate of  2.5% in 2010, and 3% in 2011.

Job Vacancies
The three main index monitoring job vacancies are all showing positive signs even though recovery in online ads are not substantial. Olivier Job Index grew by 0.48% in December, up almost 10% from July.  The DEEWR’s Skilled Vacancy Index (print job ads) grew by 1.1% in January , but the Internet Vacancy Index (online job ads) dropped by 12.1%. The ANZ job series also reported growth.

Employer Confidence
Employer confidence increased for the third consecutive quarter according to the latest Hudson Report.  Nationally, a net 29.1% of employers are planning to increase headcount in the next quarter.  Sectors like the IT industry are particularly positive, with a net 40.8% planning to increase headcount of permanent staff.

The D&B’s National Expectation Survey also found that firms are heading into 2010 with a very positive outlook. However, the employment outlook index has fallen back to 0, which is still up by 26 points on the June quarter when the index registered its lowest point since the survey started in 1998. Seven percent of SME employers are planning to increase headcount offset by 7% who are planning to decrease.

The Sensis Business Index, also shows a bounce in confidence level of the small business sector, currently registering its highest level since August 2007. In a positive development, SMEs are also positive about the next 12 months, with 20% indicating an increase in headcount.

Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence has also increased. The latest Westpac- Melbourne Institute noted ‘households assessed that their job security has improved substantially’.

Whichever way you looked at 2010, it promises to be much different than 2009.

This year, like  2009, our industry will be greatly affected by something none of us have any real control over – the economy.  But 2010 looks promising. All the major indices are showing signs of progress.

According to the ANZ’s job series jobs advertised on print grew by 11.6% during December. Online job ads also grew by 5.6%.  Similarly, the DEEWR vacancy Index also showed signs of consistent recovery. The chart below traced the uptick in jobs advertised on print media across the nation. Print advertising has increased steadily since June 09. Curiously, growth in online job ads aren’t as impressive. Still, it is good to welcome the new year with strong signs of recovery.

Other indices to keep track includes:

• National unemployment rate currently stands at 5.7% (The ABS will release the latest data today).
• SEEK Index
• Olivier Job Index

Once the other indices are released in the coming days, we will have a clearer picture of the economy. Obviously, growth will vary across different industries, and regional differences will be acute (ACT boast a 3.7% unemployment rate).  Overall, job advertisement numbers paint a positive picture of the future.  Besides, GDP is estimated to grow at 3.7%.

A brand new year arrives. Hundreds of ‘to do’ items screams for attention. What is one supposed to do first?

I am reminded of a quote by Hank Paulson, former CEO, Goldman Sachs:

“I call 60 CEOs in the first week of the year to wish them happy New Year. …” (Source: Fortune, “Secrets of Greatness,” 0320.05 via Tom Peters)

It’s good to remind ourselves that we are in the people business.  Human touch matters even in the midst of unprecedented advances in technology and upheaval in our industry.  A simple goodwill call, without expecting anything in return, is a good way to start the new year.

Happy new year.