A range of indices paint a somewhat positive picture of the year ahead.

Unemployment rate & Economy
The big news is unemployment rate dropped to 5.5% and the IMF forecasts the economy to register a growth rate of  2.5% in 2010, and 3% in 2011.

Job Vacancies
The three main index monitoring job vacancies are all showing positive signs even though recovery in online ads are not substantial. Olivier Job Index grew by 0.48% in December, up almost 10% from July.  The DEEWR’s Skilled Vacancy Index (print job ads) grew by 1.1% in January , but the Internet Vacancy Index (online job ads) dropped by 12.1%. The ANZ job series also reported growth.

Employer Confidence
Employer confidence increased for the third consecutive quarter according to the latest Hudson Report.  Nationally, a net 29.1% of employers are planning to increase headcount in the next quarter.  Sectors like the IT industry are particularly positive, with a net 40.8% planning to increase headcount of permanent staff.

The D&B’s National Expectation Survey also found that firms are heading into 2010 with a very positive outlook. However, the employment outlook index has fallen back to 0, which is still up by 26 points on the June quarter when the index registered its lowest point since the survey started in 1998. Seven percent of SME employers are planning to increase headcount offset by 7% who are planning to decrease.

The Sensis Business Index, also shows a bounce in confidence level of the small business sector, currently registering its highest level since August 2007. In a positive development, SMEs are also positive about the next 12 months, with 20% indicating an increase in headcount.

Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence has also increased. The latest Westpac- Melbourne Institute noted ‘households assessed that their job security has improved substantially’.

Whichever way you looked at 2010, it promises to be much different than 2009.

This year, like  2009, our industry will be greatly affected by something none of us have any real control over – the economy.  But 2010 looks promising. All the major indices are showing signs of progress.

According to the ANZ’s job series jobs advertised on print grew by 11.6% during December. Online job ads also grew by 5.6%.  Similarly, the DEEWR vacancy Index also showed signs of consistent recovery. The chart below traced the uptick in jobs advertised on print media across the nation. Print advertising has increased steadily since June 09. Curiously, growth in online job ads aren’t as impressive. Still, it is good to welcome the new year with strong signs of recovery.

Other indices to keep track includes:

• National unemployment rate currently stands at 5.7% (The ABS will release the latest data today).
• SEEK Index
• Olivier Job Index

Once the other indices are released in the coming days, we will have a clearer picture of the economy. Obviously, growth will vary across different industries, and regional differences will be acute (ACT boast a 3.7% unemployment rate).  Overall, job advertisement numbers paint a positive picture of the future.  Besides, GDP is estimated to grow at 3.7%.

Is a recovery heading our way?

Even if there are no immediate proof, as a nation we are becoming more optimistic about the economy. ANU quarterly study found more Australians think the worse is behind us (Full report here). A similar theme is echoed by Nielsen’s Global Confidence Survey which found Australians are one of the most positive about economic recovery. Unemployment stands at 6.8%, but we are way ahead of other developed economies (spare a thought for Zimbabwe where the unemployment rate is 94%)

Meanwhile, SEEK share price stands at a healthy $4.4, whereas it was hovering around $2.02 only a few months back. While job vacancies dropped, the rate of decline has actually diminished (ANZ survey). In fact, Olivier’s version reported a steady rise in contracting roles. Aquent’s Market Eye also suggested increasing optimism amongst employers, with permanent hiring set to increase in the next six months.

The fact is a recovery will come. But the real question is when the recovery does comes, will we be ready?