If you are a recruiter, the best way to make sense of the national unemployment rate, which currently sits at 5.3%, is to ignore it. Well, not really. But the real meat of the unemployment story lies in regional data. Broken down by states, Tasmania and NSW lead the nation in unemployment numbers, while employers in states like NT and ACT are likely to struggle with recruiting the right staff (Refer chart. Source: ABS).

Factor in the health of regional economies and one can have a fairly good idea of how difficult finding new staff will be. Commonwealth Bank measured the economic prowess of the states using eight different criteria and ranked them as follows:  

1. WA
2. ACT
3. South Australia
4. Northern Territory
5. Victoria
6. Tasmania
7. Queensland
8. NSW

Unsurprisingly, where a state lagged in economic development the unemployment rate tends to be high. The best performing economies like WA and the ACT have unemployment rates much below the national average. 

If you are a recruiter, arguably there will be more demand per capita for your skills in states like WA and the ACT (From an agency perspective having a presence in growing states would make sense – demand is likely to be consistent and competition lesser.) Dig deeper and one can unearth other data like job vacancies, supply of workforce (broken down by industry), labour productivity and turnover rates. A discerning recruiter can interpret the above sets of data and have a clearer picture on how and where to distribute limited resources.

Recruiting is mostly local, so regional data is what matters. Having a good grasp of local data should be an essential task when planning a sourcing strategy; by all means it should precedes any tactical activity (and yes that includes social media).

This year, like  2009, our industry will be greatly affected by something none of us have any real control over – the economy.  But 2010 looks promising. All the major indices are showing signs of progress.

According to the ANZ’s job series jobs advertised on print grew by 11.6% during December. Online job ads also grew by 5.6%.  Similarly, the DEEWR vacancy Index also showed signs of consistent recovery. The chart below traced the uptick in jobs advertised on print media across the nation. Print advertising has increased steadily since June 09. Curiously, growth in online job ads aren’t as impressive. Still, it is good to welcome the new year with strong signs of recovery.

Other indices to keep track includes:

• National unemployment rate currently stands at 5.7% (The ABS will release the latest data today).
• SEEK Index
• Olivier Job Index

Once the other indices are released in the coming days, we will have a clearer picture of the economy. Obviously, growth will vary across different industries, and regional differences will be acute (ACT boast a 3.7% unemployment rate).  Overall, job advertisement numbers paint a positive picture of the future.  Besides, GDP is estimated to grow at 3.7%.

Of course, these are hard times. The RBA has slashed interest rate to 3.00% (50 year low) and is on the verge of officially declaring recession in Australia.

Employers confidence has taken a beating. Hudson’s latest report revealed only 18.6% of employers intend to hire new staff, while a corresponding 17.8% will decrease headcount, resulting in a net effect of 0.8%. A similar report by Manpower also found employment outlook to be grim with only 17% of employers intending to increase headcount while 16% forecast a decrease.

If we take a closer look, it’s not all bad news. Some sectors like utilities, healthcare and education are maintaining confidence (see chart).  Regionally, employers in states like ACT and QLD are still hiring as confidence in VIC and NSW dipped.

Numbers look garish when interpreted in national averages. Generalising and lumping all regional economies under one national umbrella does not paint an accurate picture of the realities at the local level. Just as national unemployment rate of 5.2% doesn’t means much at the local level, employers sentiments varies widely.

Sure times aren’t exactly rosy, but parroting national data only adds to the collective panic, and distracts everyone from the important task of rebuilding the economy.

Not all doom and gloom
It’s misleading to talk in national terms, or blindly generalise the state of the job market (the media loves bad stories). Some states are still dealing with 3% and below unemployment rates. Some companies are struggling to find staff. Demand and supply of talent is a local issue, and in most cases national data does not always accurately represent the reality at the local level. By the way, national unemployment rate currently stands at 4.5%, hardly the nightmarish picture often painted by mainstream media.

Online classifieds grows
Online ads continues to grow. The market grew by 22% in Q4 2008 compared to last year, and is tipped to reach $2 Billion in 2009. PWC/IAB Online Advertising Report available here (pdf). These are dark days for print media, everywhere.

Social networking tactic
The fine art of navigating Facebook becomes an essential skill in the bold new world of social networking. Here’s tips on how to friend mom, dad and the boss safely on Facebook.

Tom Peters on culture
I am a big fan of Tom’s bold and unconventional take on almost all aspects of business. Below, he argues ‘brand is the talent’, that customers comes second, internal staff and company culture comes first (a similar theme echoed by CEO of Zappos in this VIDEO)

Tom Peters on Organizational Excellence from Tom Peters on Vimeo.